U Win Naing, a meteorologist, said that from 7 to 14 July, the unstable atmospheric conditions from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea will cause rain clouds to enter from the east and west of Myanmar, and the rain will continue until beyond mid-July.
Heavy rains in Kachin State and the upper part of Sagaing region in end June and early July caused floods in the upper reaches of the Chindwin and the Ayeyawady rivers, and water flowing down from there has reached the danger levels in Bhamo, Katha, Thabeikyin and Mandalay, he said.
“According to those who have records, it is about the same level as the flood in Myitkyina in 2004. So the water from the upper river will go down, and if it goes down, the entire Ayeyawady and the Chindwin rivers will also be flooded. When they floods, it will reach above the danger mark in Monywa. After these two rivers meet in Myingyan and Pakokku, the collected water will reach down further. If upper rains lessen, floods will abate. But, rain won’t stop. It is forecast to continue pouring,” he said.
In addition, ECMWF, GFS, and GEFS model forecasts show that a low-pressure system may occur in the atmosphere above 5,000 feet in the west-central Bay of Bengal and northwestern sea on the afternoon of 7 July. Due to this situation, in Rakhine State, the upper part of Sagaing Region and Kachin State, there will be heavy rains and in the rest states and regions, there will be moderate and scattered rains.
ECMWF-AI model also predicted a low pressure area near the southern coast of Vietnam in the South China Sea from 14 July, which would cross the Vietnamese coast in the evening of 15 July.
“According to the forecast, there may be a storm in the South China Sea on 14 or 15. Another low pressure area may form in the Bay of Bengal around that time, so there are rain clouds and whirlwinds coming into the country from the east and the west. Heavy rains are forecast across Myanmar. Today is a high tide day, and another one is around 19 or 20. So, due to various reasons like a lot of water coming down from upstream, there will be floods along Ayeyawady River,,” he said.
Since water levels in Ayeyawady, Chindwin, Sittaung and Thanlwin rivers are almost full, he advised people living near the riverbanks to be careful during the unending flood period.
MT/ZN
